45) Market Demand

And what it feels like.

Behind-the-scenes building Vambrace AI, a company on a mission to figure out its mission. Please pardon the stream-of-consciousness style. Subscribe to follow along or visit the site here:

(typos are to make sure you’re paying attention)

Introductory Remarks

Dear Vambracers —

In last week’s post, ICP Waltz, I discussed the ideal economic, category, and psychological profile of the companies (and individuals) I aim to support as part of my technical consulting work. It was inspired by recent encouraging developments around some new work—which has subsequently inspired a new angle for top-of-funnel acquisition. I intend to briefly explore this new angle in the coming weeks.

Market Demand

As an early-stage investor, I would always talk about the importance of “market dynamics” and the cultural, social, economic, etc., tailwinds that would help expand the market for some set of products and services over the next 5-10 years. Now on the founder journey, I’ve started to build a much more practical appreciation for how “market dynamics” actually feel in the real world.

The general concept we’re getting at here is called “product-market fit,” which is probably the most important concept in early-stage business. Marc Andreessen summed it up well in a post from 2007:

The only thing that matters is getting to product/market fit.

Product/market fit means being in a good market with a product that can satisfy that market.

You can always feel when product/market fit isn’t happening. The customers aren’t quite getting value out of the product, word of mouth isn’t spreading, usage isn’t growing that fast, press reviews are kind of “blah”, the sales cycle takes too long, and lots of deals never close.

And you can always feel product/market fit when it’s happening. The customers are buying the product just as fast as you can make it—or usage is growing just as fast as you can add more servers. Money from customers is piling up in your company checking account. You’re hiring sales and customer support staff as fast as you can. Reporters are calling because they’ve heard about your hot new thing and they want to talk to you about it. You start getting entrepreneur of the year awards from Harvard Business School. Investment bankers are staking out your house. You could eat free for a year at Buck’s.

Marc Andreessen

I had read this post in the past, but now I’m starting to really understand what it feels like in the trenches of day-to-day entrepreneurial life. Specifically, I think the concept of “you can feel it when it’s happening” is also very true.

Within the context of consulting, I think positive indicators of emerging product-market fit are quick responses to emails, enthusiasm, and energy from others. It isn’t this abstract or theoretical thing that you get if some condition is perfectly met. It’s the sum-total of my interactions with others (i.e., the “market”) and the conclusions and/or dynamics implicit within those interactions.

Do people want to talk to me (out of more than just kindness)? Are people willing and able to meet relatively quickly? Do people light up in their discussions with me? Do people engage with my ideas and freely offer their own thoughts? Etc.

The main point here being that there’s a tangible and noticeable difference in having conversations with people actually interested in what I’m selling vs those that aren’t (either because I’m not selling something compelling or I’m selling to the wrong person).

Looking Forward

A rather short one today, but I’ve had some positive market signals in the near-term that have excited me. Next week I’ll plan to discuss the new angle in greater depth—and walk through the journey I’ve been on.

To those who practice I hope you had a wonderful Easter!

Sincerely,

Luke